🔗 Share this article

It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again against United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.